Total merchandise trade

In 2019, the value of world merchandise trade declined by 2.8 per cent, after two consecutive years of increase. Global exports amounted to US$18.9 trillion. In light of COVID-19, quarter two of 2020 saw a precipitous decline, before being nowcast to rebound somewhat in quarter three. Despite this recovery, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9 per cent is nowcast for the third quarter of 2020.

In 2019, global exports were distributed in almost equal shares between the ‘North’ and the ‘South’. Developing and transition economies jointly contributed US$9.1 trillion and developed economies US$9.9 trillion to the world total. In Europe, Central America, Southern Africa and South-Eastern Asian economies, merchandise exports seldom accounted for less than 20 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), whereas in the Caribbean and in Central and Eastern Africa that rate was typically below 10 per cent.

The surge in the transition economies’ imports in 2019, despite decreasing exports, was reflected in a significant reduction of their trade surplus, which had grown continuously during the three previous years. Between 2018 and 2019, the transition economies’ trade balance went down from +US$183 billion to +US$138 billion.

This development was mirrored by a shrinkage of the developed economies’ trade deficit between 2018 (-US$861 billion) and 2019 (-US$822 billion), after three years of growth, and by a slight expansion of the - previously decreasing - surplus in developing economies.